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2/19/2013

PRE-OSCAR SUMMARY




BEST PICTURE BEST DIRECTOR LEAD ACTRESS LEAD
ACTOR
S.
ACTRESS
S.
ACTOR
O.
SCRIPT
A.
SCRIPT
HFPA ARGO AFFLECK CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY WALTZ DJANGO -
Comedy
LESMIS

LAWRENCE JACKMAN







GUILD ARGO AFFLECK LAWRENCE DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY JONES ZD30 ARGO
Ensemble
ARGO













BFCA ARGO AFFLECK CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY HOFFMAN DJANGO LINCOLN
BAFTA ARGO AFFLECK RIVA DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY WALTZ DJANGO PLAYBOOK

BEST PICTURE : Based on precursors Argo is the frontrunner, but it is definitely trickier than it looks like. Only three films won Best Picture without a corresponding Best Director nomination, and the most recent was Driving Miss Daisy (1989). Long story short : watch out for the films that made the cut in BD, as well (Lincoln, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, Amour) !

BEST DIRECTOR : Huge question mark since the director who won EVERYTHING, didn't receive a nomination in this category, so at this point, it is basically anybody's game. Steven Spielberg seems like the logical choice, because Ang Lee's film might not appeal to the most dominant Academy branch (Actors), but I wouldn't count out Michael Haneke, either, I think he is a much stronger contender than we give him credit for, and of course seeing how madly in love the Academy seems to be with Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell is still a viable possibility, as well.

BEST ACTRESS : As every SAG winner before her Jennifer Lawrence IS the frontrunner and seems to have the edge at the moment, but the Bafta victory definitely means Emmanuelle Riva could easily surprise , not to mention that a case can be made for Jessica Chastain and Naomi Watts, as well : if the Academy wants to make up for the Bigelow-snub the same way they will probably make up for the Affleck-snub, voting for Jessica Chastain might be the best way, meanwhile if the ugly truth will be that Riva doesn't have the wide support we think she does (SAG omission) and the 'it' girls split votes, long overdue Naomi Watts could emerge and probably few would argue with such decision, she is widely considered as one of the best actresses who never won an Oscar.

BEST ACTOR : It would be the biggest upset in recent memory if Daniel Day-Lewis didn't win on Sunday, and though the career-best performances of first time nominees Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper are certain to garner votes, probably not nearly enough to come even close to the landslide win Day-Lewis is expected to pull off.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS : Like Best Actor, this category seems like a done deal, and even though they like Sally Field, they really like her, not to mention there is still a chance the Academy will embrace Lincoln in a big way, this is Anne Hathaway's to lose.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR : I think Christoph Waltz will take this, he didn't only win the Golden Globe and Bafta, it's worth mentioning that he was basically ineligible for SAG, well, not really, but if my memory serves me well, it wasn't screened for them and no screeners were sent, either, so who knows, he might have won that too, had they seen the performance in time. Having said that SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones is definitely a very strong player, meanwhile Robert De Niro has been campaigning hard and Alan Arkin is in the Best Picture frontrunner, so once again, it seems we have a wide open race here,too, one that will end with someone's second (or in De Niro's case third) Oscar...and I am still frustrated it couldn't end with at least the first NOMINATION for Ewan McGregor who arguably delivered the most powerful supporting performance in 2012.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY : Quentin Tarantino won every award he was eligible for (hint, hint WGA), so he is definitely the frontrunner and despite the WGA victory, it's unlikely Mark Boal would win his second so soon AND with all the controversy surrounding his work, so my guess is that if anyone can get in Tarantino's way, it will be Michael Haneke (Amour), especially if he doesn't win Best Director.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY : Another category that is all over the place which once again proves that this is probably THE most unpredictable Oscar-year in a very, very long time. Chris Terrio (Argo) is the frontrunner, and though he would make a worthy winner, I am rooting for Tony Kushner (Lincoln) whose work I consider superior to every screenplay this year (or decade), meanwhile it is perfectly conceivable that the Academy will give it to David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) as a consolation prize for not giving him Best Director. IF Life of Pi emerges as the one to beat on Oscar night, of course David Magee could shock, but at this point, it's highly unlikely.




BEST
PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR LEAD ACTRESS LEAD
ACTOR
S.
ACTRESS
S.
ACTOR
O.
SCRIPT
A.
SCRIPT
NYFCC ZD30 BIGELOW WEISZ DAY-LEWIS FIELD
MCCONAUGHEY
- LINCOLN
NBR ZD30 BIGELOW CHASTAIN COOPER DOWD DICAPRIO LOOPER SLP
BOFCA ZD30 BIGELOW CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY JONES - LINCOLN
BSFC ZD30 BIGELOW RIVA DAY-LEWIS FIELD MILLER - LINCOLN
LAFCA AMOUR ANDERSON RIVA PHOENIX ADAMS HENRY - ARGO






LAWRENCE









NYFCO ZD30 BIGELOW RIVA DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY JONES ZD30 -
WAFCA ZD30 BIGELOW CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY HOFFMAN LOOPER SLP
SDFCS ARGO AFFLECK WILLIAMS DAY-LEWIS WATSON WALTZ MASTER ARGO
LVFCS
PI
LEE LAWRENCE DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY JONES LOOPER -
SFFCC
MASTER
BIGELOW RIVA PHOENIX HUNT JONES ZD30 LINCOLN
KCFCC
MASTER
LEE LAWRENCE DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY HOFFMAN MASTER ARGO
CFCA
ZD30
BIGELOW CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS ADAMS HOFFMAN ZD30 LINCOLN
IFJA
SAFETY
TARANTINO CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY JONES SAFETY PERKS







COOPER







SEFCA
ARGO
AFFLECK LAWRENCE DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY HOFFMAN KINGDOM ARGO
SLFCA
ARGO
AFFLECK CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS HUNT WALTZ ZD30 LINCOLN









DOWD



SLP
DFCS
SLP
RUSSELL LAWRENCE DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY DE NIRO - SLP
AAFCA
ZD30
AFFLECK CORINEALDI
WASHINGTON
FIELD PARKER MIDDLE -
TFCA
MASTER
ANDERSON WEISZ LAVANT GERSHON HOFFMAN MASTER -
DFWFCA
LINCOLN
BIGELOW CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS FIELD JONES - -
FFCC
ARGO
AFFLECK CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY HOFFMAN LOOPER ARGO
AFCA
ZD30
ANDERSON LAWRENCE PHOENIX HATHAWAY WALTZ LOOPER ARGO
UFCA
ZD30
ANDERSON CHASTAIN PHOENIX HATHAWAY HENRY LOOPER PERKS





LAWRENCE









NFCS
ARGO
AFFLECK LAWRENCE HAWKES FIELD JONES - -



BIGELOW HUNT









OFCC
ARGO
AFFLECK CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY HOFFMAN KINGDOM ARGO
COFCA
KINGDOM
ANDERSON LAWRENCE DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY WALTZ KINGDOM LINCOLN
NSFC
AMOUR
HANEKE RIVA DAY-LEWIS ADAMS
MCCONAUGHEY
-
LINCOLN
HFCS
ARGO
AFFLECK LAWRENCE DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY
JONES
- LINCOLN
NTFCA
LINCOLN
SPIELBERG LAWRENCE DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY
JONES
- -
OFCS
ARGO
ANDERSON CHASTAIN DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY
HOFFMAN
KINGDOM ARGO
VFCC
ZD30
BIGELOW CHASTAIN PHOENIX ADAMS
HOFFMAN
ZD30 -
DFCS
ARGO
AFFLECK LAWRENCE DAY-LEWIS HATHAWAY
HOFFMAN
KINGDOM
PLAYBOOK

Nomination Chart (Bafta-Guild-Golden Globe-BFCA) after the cut :


BAFTA
GUILD
HFPA
BFCA

PICTURE
BAFTA
PGA
HFPA
BFCA
SAG Ensemble


LINCOLN LINCOLN LINCOLN LINCOLN LINCOLN


ARGO ARGO ARGO ARGO ARGO


MISERABLES MISERABLES MISERABLES MISERABLES MISERABLES




PLAYBOOK PLAYBOOK PLAYBOOK PLAYBOOK





MARIGOLD
-
MARIGOLD


ZD30 ZD30 ZD30 ZD30



LIFE OF PI LIFE OF PI LIFE OF PI LIFE OF PI





DJANGO DJANGO DJANGO





MOONRISE MOONRISE MONRISE





BEASTS
-
BEASTS





SKYFALL

YEMEN THE MASTER

DIRECTOR
BAFTA
DGA
HFPA
BFCA




BIGELOW BIGELOW BIGELOW BIGELOW



AFFLECK AFFLECK AFFLECK AFFLECK



LEE LEE LEE LEE





SPIELBERG SPIELBERG SPIELBERG





HOOPER
-
HOOPER



TARANTINO
-
TARANTINO





HANEKE



RUSSELL

ACTRESS
BAFTA
SAG
HFPA
BFCA




CHASTAIN CHASTAIN CHASTAIN CHASTAIN



LAWRENCE LAWRENCE LAWRENCE LAWRENCE



COTILLARD COTILLARD COTILLARD COTILLARD





WATTS WATTS WATTS



MIRREN MIRREN MIRREN





RIVA
-
-
RIVA







WEISZ WALLIS







SMITH









STREEP









DENCH









BLUNT



ACTOR
BAFTA
SAG
HFPA
BFCA




DAY-LEWIS DAY-LEWIS DAY-LEWIS DAY-LEWIS



JACKMAN JACKMAN JACKMAN JACKMAN



COOPER COOPER COOPER COOPER





HAWKES HAWKES HAWKES





WASHINGTON WASHINGTON WASHINGTON



PHOENIX
-
PHOENIX PHOENIX



AFFLECK

GERE









MURRAY









BLACK









MCGREGOR



S. ACTRESS
BAFTA
SAG
HFPA
BFCA




HATHAWAY HATHAWAY HATHAWAY HATHAWAY



FIELD FIELD FIELD FIELD



HUNT HUNT HUNT HUNT



ineligible

KIDMAN KIDMAN





ADAMS
-
ADAMS ADAMS



DENCH
-
-
DENCH





SMITH

DOWD

S. ACTOR
BAFTA
SAG
HFPA
BFCA




JONES JONES JONES JONES



HOFFMAN HOFFMAN HOFFMAN HOFFMAN



ARKIN ARKIN ARKIN ARKIN



BARDEM BARDEM
-
BARDEM





DE NIRO
-
DE NIRO



WALTZ
-
WALTZ









DICAPRIO MCCONAUGHEY

O. SCRIPT
BAFTA
WGA*
HFPA
BFCA




ZD30 ZD30 ZD30 ZD30



DJANGO
ineligible
DJANGO DJANGO



THE MASTER THE MASTER
-
THE MASTER



MOONRISE MOONRISE
-
MOONRISE



AMOUR LOOPER
-
LOOPER





FLIGHT
-
FLIGHT

A. SCRIPT
BAFTA
WGA*
HFPA
BFCA




LINCOLN LINCOLN LINCOLN LINCOLN



ARGO ARGO ARGO ARGO



PLAYBOOK PLAYBOOK PLAYBOOK PLAYBOOK



LIFE OF PI LIFE OF PI
-
LIFE OF PI



BEASTS PERKS
-
PERKS

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